subscribesubscriber servicescontact usabout ussite mapBuy a Classified
Tue, Oct 07 2008 

Published June 30, 2008 12:56 am - Double-digit winning streak are actually pretty impressive when you go inside the numbers.

What the Twins' streak signals



Now that the Twins’ 10-game winning streak is over, we can ask: What does it tell us about this team?

Quick answer: That it’s better — maybe a lot better — than most of us suspected, or even hoped.

We’ve seen longer winning streaks in recent years — the 2002 Oakland A’s, for example, ran off a 20-game binge.

But a 10-0 run is long enough, and extreme enough, to suggest that this is not a mere .500 club, much less the 90-plus loss team many anticipated entering the season.

In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James published probability charts on the chances for streaks. This was in the context of examining the 35-5 sprint out of the gate of the 1984 Tigers.

According to James, a .650 team — which would win about 105 games in a 162-game season — has a 1.3 percent chance of running off a 10-game winning streak at some point. A .500 team (81-81) has a .1 percent chance.

The significance is in the extremes. A 9-1 record isn’t close to being as significant; a .500 club has a 1 percent chance of such a spell. A mediocre team is far, far more likely to go 9-1 at some point than to go 10-0.

Now, James’ charts are theoretical, the results of statistical probabilities. They’re not the specific result of historical research. He’s not saying that .1 percent of .500 teams have a 10-game winning streak; I doubt there’s a thousand .500 records available to research.

But, says James:

In fact, baseball teams’ patters on wins and losses ... do conform in the main to the expectations of chance sequences; .450 teams do not win 10 straight games, except on rare occasions. They might win eight straight or nine straight, but that’s completely different; a .450 team will go 8-2 more than 50 times as often as they will go 10-0.

The Twins’ specific history isn’t so emphatic.

This was the their seventh double-digit winning streak since arriving in Minnesota in 1961. The longest —15 — came in the 1991 season; the Twins won the World Series that year.

But two of the seven streaks came with sub-.500 teams; the 1980 Twins had a 12-game streak (second longest in club history) at the end of the season and the 1985 Twins had a 10-gamer early in the year.

The others all came in 90-plus win seasons: 10 straight in 1963 (91-70); 11 in 2003 (90-72) and 11 in 2006 (96-66).

If the 2008 team wins 90 games, I think they’ll take the division title.



print this story    email this story   

Click here to load this Caspio Bridge DataPage.
Click here to load this Caspio Bridge DataPage.




monster
wheels

Find a job! Find a Home! Find a car!

Premier Guide
Find a business

Walking Fingers
Maps, Menus, Store hours, Coupons, and more...
Premier Guide
Premier Guide
Top Jobs

Manufacturing Positions - LeSueur Inc.
Manufacturing Positions

Le Sueur Incorporated is a thriving, full service foundry and die-cast business produ
...>MORE

LIVINGLINKS
livinglinks.org

Part-Time Family Support Specialists
...>MORE

MANKATO CLINIC
It's All About Caring
MankatoClinicJobs

Ti
...>MORE

Alumacraft Boat Co. Job Opening
Alumacraft Boat Co. Job Opening
www.alumacraft.com
<
...>MORE

See all ads

Top Auto/Recreation

Lager's Chrysler World •Mankato
LagersChryslerWorld
Browse South Central Minnes
...>MORE

See all ads

Top Real Estate/Rental

For Sale By Owner
Newer rambler w/ 2 otbldgs. 9.67 acres.. Basement finished w/ mthr-in-law apt. $319,000. 507-380-4503
...>MORE

APARTMENTS & TOWNHOMES
The best selection. Lloyd Management, Inc. Where you're not just residents, you're family! 507-625-5573
>MORE

CENTURY 21 ATWOOD REALTY, INC.
AtwoodRealtyOnline

712 8th Street
Nicollet
...>MORE

FSBO - 18 Cardianl Court North Mankato
Pre Realtor Price of $359,900 SAVE $15,000
5BR, 3BA, 4200+sf Huge kitchen w/ hrdwd flrs, private master ste. Fenced
...>MORE

See all ads

Top Deals of the Day

PUREBRED GOLDEN RETRIEVERS
5 M's and 2 F's, shots, dews, vet chk¹d
papers, $400 507-461-2396
...>MORE

The Free Press Classified Marketplace
Place your Top Deal of the Day
Contact Roxanne or Lee today!
classified@mankatofreepress.com
507-
...>MORE

See all ads


 

Community Newspaper Holdings, Inc.CNHI Classified Advertising NetworkCNHI News Service
Associated Press content © 2008. All rights reserved. AP content may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Our site is powered by Zope and our Internet Yellow Pages site is powered by PremierGuide.
Some parts of our site may require you to download the Flash Player Plugin.
View our Privacy Policy
Advertiser index