July 14, 2008 12:16 am
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Johan Santana. CC Sabathia.
Two left-handed power pitchers with Cy Young Awards on their resumes. Each up for free agency after the 2008 season, each traded by an AL Central team to a team in the National League. Each trade netted a package of four minor leaguers.
There are differences, of course. Santana had a no-trade clause; Sabathia didn’t. And the Twins traded Santana before spring training, while the Indians dealt Sabathia about halfway through the season.
But similar enough to raise the question: Who got the better deal for their unretainable ace, Minnesota or Cleveland?
First answer, and an accurate one: It’s too soon to be certain. We don’t even know exactly who the fourth minor leaguer in the Sabathia deal is, much less how these young players will develop.
But that answer’s no fun.
There are some parallels between the two packages. The centerpiece in each is an outfielder — Carlos Gomez for the Twins, Matt Laporta for the Indians.
They are, however, two very dissimilar talents. We’ve seen enough of Gomez to have a reading on his strengths and flaws: as an unnamed scout put it to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, Gomez is looking for the key to his tool box. What he does best right now is run; what he’ll do best in five years is anybody’s guess.
Laporta is a lead-footed slugger who may not remain in left field; he was a first baseman in college moved to left by the Brewers because they had Prince Fielder blocking his path.
Laporta has big-time power and a good eye at the plate. Old player skills, as Bill James would describe it.
John Sickels this spring listed Laporta as the 19th best position player prospect, Gomez 48th. Baseball America’s listings this spring consistently also put Laporta higher than Gomez.
Those rankings deserve to be taken seriously. So does this: Gomez is almost a year younger, and he’s a regular in the majors, while Laporta is tearing up Double A.
Slim advantage, Gomez.
Phil Humber (Twins) was the third pick overall in the 2004 draft, but his career has not recovered from ligament replacement surgery. He has regressed this year — his ERA in Triple A is 6.25. He is now, at best, a marginal prospect. Zach Jackson (Indians) is left-handed and breathing. That’s about as much as can be said for him. His Triple A ERA this season: 7.85.
Call that one even, and very low-ceiling.
Each trade has a Class A pitcher. Delois Guerra (Twins) is very highly regarded — some of the Baseball America rankings this spring put him ahead of Laporta — although the Twins are said to be revamping his mechanics. He’s repeating High A ball this year and is still very young for that level of play. Rob Bryson (Indians) is a couple of years older, is in low A ball and is seen as a relief prospect.
Big advantage, Guerra.
The fourth player in the Twins package, Kevin Mulvey, is holding his own in Triple A. He figures to be a major league starter in the next couple of years — and he’s the type of starter the Twins have had a history of success with — but right now he’s not knocking the door down.
The fourth player in the Indians package has not been determined. Taylor Green, now a third baseman in High A ball, might be the fourth; supposedly the Indians are scouting him to see if they think he can be shifted to second base. He appears to be a good hitting prospect.
Green would probably be the second-best player in the Sabathia package, so this is no mere throw-in. But it’s difficult to conclude that that Green has a higher ceiling than Mulvey, and Mulvey is definitely closer to the majors.
Advantage, Mulvey.
So who got the better package?
I think the Twins did, mainly because their back end of the trade — Guerra — might become a star about five years from now. The best bet out of all eight players to make an All-Star team is Laporta; the next three are the Gomez-Guerra-Mulvey trio.
There’s no real reason to believe that the Indians benefited from any sort of seller’s market by waiting until July to peddle Sabathia.
Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com/ethomabaseball/
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